Les réponses à une récente enquête suggèrent que la tendance pourrait être saisonnière plutôt que structurelle.
Where do sheet prices go from here? What is the state of steel demand? And is the drop in sheet prices we’ve seen just a case of the summer doldrums, or is it something more significant?
Rather than try to answer these questions ourselves, SMU polled its readers for a summer review of where things stand. Below is that collective wisdom, presented with only minor edits for grammar and syntax.
When Do Folks Think Hot-Rolled Coil (HRC) Prices Will Bottom?
A small number believe they already have bottomed (see Figure 1):
- “Markets are trending upward. Demand increasing is driving pricing.”
Some think it’ll be this month:
- “Costs are bottoming out. Inventories are moderate, and lower imports expected to arrive.”
- “Best guess is based on futures. I assumed a mill increase would have been announced already.”
- “Fundamentals are weak.”
- “Based on the pace of the decline over the past month or two, we’ll reach my projected bottom price of $700/ton in about three to four weeks.”
- “Scrap prices will bounce.”
- “I’m not expecting big price surges, but an uptick is in the cards. New orders for imports are dropping off.”
- “Construction and automotive demand are lower.”
- “Pretty much think they have bottomed, but still a few things left to get done that might pull index numbers down.”
Some steel buyers are looking at July:
- “We are anticipating a bit longer to drift downward. Not crazy numbers, but just slow and steady until mid-summer. Seven-hundred dollars per ton or slightly below seems realistic.”
- “I expect the mills to reduce capacity in some way to stop the [downward] trend.”
- “Mills will shore up the pricing, either with reduced capacity or with pricing increases.”
- “The pipe mills are lowering prices to get more orders when in reality the orders are not coming due to market conditions, not pricing.”
- “Need to work through imports, and mills will get religion—i.e., discipline.”
- “Not enough restocking needed quite yet to stop the sliding.”
Pour lire l'article complet : Steel prices continue recent downward slide (thefabricator.com)
